GMS poll of 3 January 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Dec 2024 to 2 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 1,010
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU33.0%-1.0
- AfD18.0%+1.0
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%-2.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others7.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 Dec 2024.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 33.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,010 people were surveyed from 27 Dec 2024 to 2 Jan 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 Dec 2024, BSW loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has BSW 1.8 points lower and CDU/CSU 1.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW -1.8average 5.8
- CDU/CSU +1.6average 31.4
- AfD -0.7average 18.7
- FDP +0.5average 3.5
- Grüne -0.4average 13.4
- SPD -0.3average 16.3
- Linke -0.3average 3.3
- Freie Wähler ±0average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU260
- AfD142
- SPD126
- Grüne102
- CDU/CSU + AfD402 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD386 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne362 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.