GMS poll of 8 October 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 7 Oct 2019
- Respondents
- 1,002
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU27.0%±0
- Grüne22.0%-1.0
- AfD15.0%+3.0
- SPD14.0%-2.0
- FDP8.0%+1.0
- Linke7.0%-1.0
- Others7.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 13 Sep 2019.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by Grüne on 22.0%. 1,002 people were surveyed from 1 to 7 Oct 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 13 Sep 2019, AfD gains 3.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Oct 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke -0.9average 7.9
- AfD +0.7average 14.3
- Grüne -0.6average 22.6
- CDU/CSU -0.4average 27.4
- SPD +0.2average 13.8
- FDP +0.2average 7.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU183
- Grüne149
- AfD102
- SPD95
- FDP54
- Linke47
- CDU/CSU + Grüne332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD380 of 630
- Grüne + AfD + SPD346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke325 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.