Single poll

GMS poll of 4 April 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
GMS
Fieldwork period
28 Mar 2019 to 3 Apr 2019
Respondents
1,003
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
  • Grüne18.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%-1.0
  • AfD13.0%-1.0
  • FDP10.0%+1.0
  • Linke9.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 28 Feb 2019.

In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 28 Mar 2019 to 3 Apr 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by GMS.

Compared with the previous GMS poll of 28 Feb 2019, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has SPD 1.7 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Apr 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -1.7average 16.7
  • FDP +0.8average 9.2
  • AfD +0.5average 12.5
  • Grüne -0.4average 18.4
  • Linke +0.4average 8.6
  • CDU/CSU +0.3average 29.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 199 seatsGrüne: 119 seatsSPD: 100 seatsAfD: 86 seatsFDP: 66 seatsLinke: 60 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU199
  • Grüne119
  • SPD100
  • AfD86
  • FDP66
  • Linke60
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD385 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke345 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke325 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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