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Pollster and election

Ipsos on the federal election

79 polls since 29 January 2017, the latest from 2 September 2026 for DER SPIEGEL. Against the current average of all pollsters, Ipsos has Linke +1.4 and AfD -0.9. House effect since 22 Sep 2025: CDU/CSU -1.5, Linke +1.2, Grüne +0.6.

  • AfD27.0%-1.0
  • CDU/CSU21.0%±0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • Linke13.0%±0
  • SPD12.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others4.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Ipsos poll of 6 Aug 2026.

This poll in detail

Trend

All Ipsos figures for the federal election

010203040Oct 24Dec 24Feb 25Apr 25Jun 25Aug 25Oct 25Dec 25Feb 26Apr 26Jun 26Aug 26AfDCDU/CSUGrüneLinkeSPDFDPBSW
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 45 days. Period 12 Sep 2024 to 2 Sep 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Accuracy

Ipsos before the last elections

Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.

  • Election 23 Feb 2025 (poll 21 Feb 2025)0.7 ptsbiggest miss Linke -1.8
  • Election 26 Sep 2021 (poll 24 Sep 2021)1.2 ptsbiggest miss CDU/CSU -2.1
Archive

All 79 polls

Ipsos polls for the federal election
PollsterPublishedAfDCDU/CSUGrüneLinkeSPDFDPBSWOthers
Ipsos2 Sep 20262721151312534
Ipsos6 Aug 20262821151312533
Ipsos9 Jul 20262822141313433
Ipsos11 Jun 20262723141213434
Ipsos13 May 20262623141213435
Ipsos1 Apr 20262524141114534
Ipsos5 Mar 20262425141115434
Ipsos16 Feb 20262623131215434
Ipsos15 Jan 20262623131115435
Ipsos4 Dec 20252623131015445
Ipsos12 Nov 20252624121115444
Ipsos9 Oct 20252523111215455
Ipsos10 Sep 20252524121215345
Ipsos7 Aug 20252525111115355
Ipsos10 Jul 20252426121215344
Ipsos5 Jun 20252327111116345
Ipsos14 May 20252525121015454
Ipsos9 Apr 20252524111115455
Ipsos7 Mar 2025222912915454
Ipsos21 Feb 20252130127164.54.55
Ipsos20 Feb 20252031137154.54.55
Ipsos6 Feb 2025212913416458
Ipsos28 Jan 2025193014316468
Ipsos9 Jan 2025193013316476
Ipsos5 Dec 2024183213316375
Ipsos7 Nov 2024183211315585
Ipsos10 Oct 2024183111315487
Ipsos12 Sep 2024183211313498
Ipsos8 Aug 2024163013314589
Ipsos11 Jul 20241630123145810
Ipsos13 Jun 2024172913315587
Ipsos10 May 2024182813416576
Ipsos10 Apr 2024182913415576
Ipsos8 Mar 2024182914315576
Ipsos8 Feb 2024183013415485
Ipsos10 Jan 20242230135156–9
Ipsos7 Dec 20232129135166–10
Ipsos9 Nov 20232028155176–9
Ipsos12 Oct 20232226145177–9
Ipsos8 Sep 20232126146178–8
Ipsos9 Aug 20232226155178–7
Ipsos12 Jul 20232226145187–8
Ipsos9 Jun 20231928136208–6
Ipsos11 May 20231629155198–8
Ipsos7 Apr 20231527174218–8
Ipsos10 Mar 20231527185207–8
Ipsos9 Feb 20231626175208–8
Ipsos13 Jan 20231527186197–8
Ipsos8 Dec 20221427196197–8
Ipsos9 Nov 20221327206197–8
Ipsos12 Oct 20221327216187–8
Ipsos7 Sep 20221226216198–8
Ipsos16 Aug 20221127225198–8
Ipsos8 Jul 20221026205229–8
Ipsos13 Jun 20221027194239–8
Ipsos13 May 202211251652411–8
Ipsos8 Apr 202212231562512–7
Ipsos10 Mar 202211241662511–7
Ipsos9 Feb 20221224168258–7
Ipsos12 Jan 202212211562511–10

The 60 most recent; older ones via the Chronicle.

Other elections covered by this pollster

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

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