Wahlergebnissede
Pollster and election

Civey on the Bavarian state election

55 polls since 13 October 2017, the latest from 12 September 2026 for Augsburger Allgemeine. Against the current average of all pollsters, Civey has CSU ±0 and AfD ±0. House effect since 12 Sep 2024: AfD +1.4, CSU -0.9, Grüne +0.6.

  • CSU38.0%±0
  • AfD20.0%±0
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler12.0%±0
  • SPD6.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • FDP2.0%±0
  • Others3.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Civey poll of 14 Aug 2026.

This poll in detail

Trend

All Civey figures for the Bavaria state election

010203040502023202420252026CSUAfDGrüneFreie WählerSPDLinkeBSWFDP
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 120 days. Period 21 Nov 2022 to 12 Sep 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Accuracy

Civey before the last elections

Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.

  • Election 8 Oct 2023 (poll 2 Oct 2023)0.6 ptsbiggest miss FDP +1.0
  • Election 14 Oct 2018 (poll 11 Oct 2018)1.8 ptsbiggest miss CSU -4.3
Archive

All 55 polls

Civey polls for the Bavarian state election
PollsterPublishedCSUAfDGrüneFreie WählerSPDLinkeBSWFDPOthers
Civey12 Sep 20263820131263323
Civey14 Aug 20263820131263323
Civey18 Jul 20263719141263324
Civey14 Jun 20263819141263323
Civey16 May 20263719141273323
Civey19 Apr 20263819131173324
Civey14 Mar 20263917121183325
Civey14 Feb 20264018111273126
Civey19 Jan 20264018121173126
Civey17 Dec 20253721121084224
Civey15 Nov 2025402012985213
Civey11 Oct 20253820111084225
Civey13 Sep 20254020131081215
Civey18 Aug 2025412013981215
Civey14 Jul 20253722121071326
Civey14 Jun 2025392212971325
Civey10 May 20253919121082424
Civey12 Apr 20253918121082425
Civey15 Mar 20254115131182424
Civey17 Feb 20254114141281415
Civey22 Jan 20254314141271315
Civey14 Dec 20244214121271435
Civey16 Nov 20244412111181427
Civey16 Mar 20244213141471–27
Civey18 Nov 20234013141392–36
Civey2 Oct 20233714151591–45
Civey21 Sep 20233813141492–46
Civey7 Sep 202336171512101–45
Civey24 Aug 202338131512102–46
Civey10 Aug 202339121611112–45
Civey15 Jul 202338111712122–35
Civey17 Jun 202340101611112–46
Civey18 Feb 20233910181292–46
Civey14 Jan 2023429171093–46
Civey21 Nov 202241101710102–37
Civey16 Jul 2022388221092–56
Civey6 Apr 202044.18.619.68.19.33.2–3.14
Civey27 Apr 201936.48.320.89.710.33.3–5.85.4
Civey30 Mar 201938.18.320.310.19.53.2–5.45.1
Civey11 Oct 201832.912.818.59.8113.9–5.95.2
Civey24 Sep 20183613.217.98.6123.3–54
Civey10 Sep 201835.813.716.58.112.12.7–5.85.3
Civey27 Aug 201837.813.515.18.111.82.5–6.15.1
Civey14 Aug 201838.115.2157.312.32.7–5.34.1
Civey6 Jul 201842.513.113.2613.72.8–5.23.5
Civey8 Jun 201841.113.512.6713.43.5–4.84.1
Civey13 May 201842.11213.56.613.72.9–5.14.1
Civey6 Apr 201844.511.911.36.514.82.8–4.24
Civey16 Mar 201841.412.1128.414.23–4.64.3
Civey26 Feb 201839.412.312.28.613.43.5–5.35.3
Civey16 Jan 201839.913.111.47.614.83.4–5.84
Civey13 Dec 201736.712.912.18.3162.9–7.14
Civey30 Nov 201736.511.812.19.5163.5–7.13.5
Civey16 Nov 201738.813.510.86.514.93.6–83.9
Civey13 Oct 201740.711.312.4714.13.4–7.14

Other elections covered by this pollster

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.