Single poll

Civey poll of 16 January 2018 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Augsburger Allgemeine
Fieldwork period
6 to 16 Jan 2018
Respondents
5,040
Method
Unbekannt
  • CSU39.9%+3.2
  • SPD14.8%-1.2
  • AfD13.1%+0.2
  • Grüne11.4%-0.7
  • Freie Wähler7.6%-0.7
  • FDP5.8%-1.3
  • Linke3.4%+0.5
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 13 Dec 2017.

In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 39.9%, followed by SPD on 14.8%. 5,040 people were surveyed from 6 to 16 Jan 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 13 Dec 2017, CSU gains 3.2 points, FDP loses 1.3 points, SPD loses 1.2 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 1.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jan 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.8average 11.3
  • FDP -1.2average 7.0
  • SPD -1.0average 15.8
  • CSU +0.6average 39.3
  • Freie Wähler +0.6average 7.0
  • Grüne -0.4average 11.8
  • Linke -0.1average 3.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 78 seatsSPD: 29 seatsAfD: 25 seatsGrüne: 22 seatsFreie Wähler: 15 seatsFDP: 11 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU78
  • SPD29
  • AfD25
  • Grüne22
  • Freie Wähler15
  • FDP11
  • CSU + SPD107 of 180
  • CSU + AfD103 of 180
  • CSU + Grüne100 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler93 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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