Single poll

Civey poll of 16 March 2018 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Augsburger Allgemeine
Fieldwork period
2 to 15 Mar 2018
Respondents
5,004
Method
Unbekannt
  • CSU41.4%+2.0
  • SPD14.2%+0.8
  • AfD12.1%-0.2
  • Grüne12.0%-0.2
  • Freie Wähler8.4%-0.2
  • FDP4.6%-0.7
  • Linke3.0%-0.5
  • Others4.3%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 26 Feb 2018.

In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 41.4%, followed by SPD on 14.2%. 5,004 people were surveyed from 2 to 15 Mar 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 26 Feb 2018, CSU gains 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Freie Wähler 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Mar 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler +1.6average 6.8
  • FDP -1.4average 6.0
  • AfD +1.1average 11.0
  • CSU +0.9average 40.5
  • SPD -0.8average 15.0
  • Grüne -0.8average 12.8
  • Linke -0.3average 3.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 85 seatsSPD: 29 seatsAfD: 25 seatsGrüne: 24 seatsFreie Wähler: 17 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU85
  • SPD29
  • AfD25
  • Grüne24
  • Freie Wähler17
  • CSU + SPD114 of 180
  • CSU + AfD110 of 180
  • CSU + Grüne109 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler102 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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