Single poll
Civey poll of 27 August 2018 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 16 to 26 Aug 2018
- Respondents
- 5,049
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CSU37.8%-0.3
- Grüne15.1%+0.1
- AfD13.5%-1.7
- SPD11.8%-0.5
- Freie Wähler8.1%+0.8
- FDP6.1%+0.8
- Linke2.5%-0.2
- Others5.1%+1.0
37.8%
-0.3
CSU
15.1%
+0.1
Grüne
13.5%
-1.7
AfD
11.8%
-0.5
SPD
8.1%
+0.8
Freie Wähler
6.1%
+0.8
FDP
2.5%
-0.2
Linke
5.1%
+1.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 14 Aug 2018.
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 37.8%, followed by Grüne on 15.1%. 5,049 people were surveyed from 16 to 26 Aug 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 14 Aug 2018, AfD loses 1.7 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Aug 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU -1.0average 38.8
- Linke -1.0average 3.5
- FDP +0.8average 5.3
- SPD -0.7average 12.5
- AfD +0.5average 13.0
- Freie Wähler +0.3average 7.8
- Grüne +0.1average 15.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU74
- Grüne29
- AfD26
- SPD23
- Freie Wähler16
- FDP12
- CSU + Grüne103 of 180
- CSU + AfD100 of 180
- CSU + SPD97 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP102 of 180
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.