Civey poll of 15 July 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Augsburger Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Jun 2023 to 14 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 5,503
- Method
- Online
- CSU38.0%-2.0
- Grüne17.0%+1.0
- SPD12.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler12.0%+1.0
- AfD11.0%+1.0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Others5.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 17 Jun 2023.
In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.0%. 5,503 people were surveyed from 30 Jun 2023 to 14 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 17 Jun 2023, CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Grüne 2.3 points higher and CSU 2.2 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +2.3average 14.7
- CSU -2.2average 40.2
- SPD +1.8average 10.2
- FDP -1.6average 4.6
- AfD -0.8average 11.8
- Freie Wähler +0.6average 11.4
- Linke +0.1average 1.9
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU76
- Grüne34
- SPD24
- Freie Wähler24
- AfD22
- CSU + Grüne110 of 180
- CSU + SPD100 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler100 of 180
- CSU + AfD98 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.