Pollster and election
GMS on the Bavarian state election
48 polls since 19 October 2017, the latest from 3 March 2026 for SAT.1 Bayern. Against the current average of all pollsters, GMS has AfD -2.0 and Freie Wähler -2.0. House effect since 12 Sep 2024: Grüne -1.5, SPD -1.4, CSU +0.9.
- CSU39.0%±0
- AfD18.0%-1.0
- Grüne13.0%+2.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%-2.0
- SPD7.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- FDP2.0%±0
- BSW2.0%±0
- Bayernpartei1.0%±0
- Others5.0%±0
39.0%
±0
CSU
18.0%
-1.0
AfD
13.0%
+2.0
Grüne
10.0%
-2.0
Freie Wähler
7.0%
+1.0
SPD
3.0%
±0
Linke
2.0%
±0
FDP
2.0%
±0
BSW
1.0%
±0
Bayernpartei
5.0%
±0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the GMS poll of 5 Jan 2026.
Trend
All GMS figures for the Bavaria state election
Accuracy
GMS before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 8 Oct 2023 (poll 19 Sep 2023)0.6 ptsbiggest miss Freie Wähler +1.2
- Election 14 Oct 2018 (poll 27 Sep 2018)1.6 ptsbiggest miss SPD +3.3
Archive
All 48 polls
| Pollster | Published | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Bayernpartei | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMS | 3 Mar 2026 | 39 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 5 Jan 2026 | 39 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 11 Dec 2025 | 40 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | – | 6 |
| GMS | 30 Sep 2025 | 39 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| GMS | 17 Sep 2024 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| GMS | 7 May 2024 | 41 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 6 Feb 2024 | 42 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 3 Jan 2024 | 41 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 3 | – | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 19 Sep 2023 | 36 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 3 | – | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 6 Sep 2023 | 38 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 4 | – | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 9 Aug 2023 | 39 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 4 | – | 1 | 4 |
| GMS | 4 Jul 2023 | 40 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 4 | – | 1 | 4 |
| GMS | 6 Jun 2023 | 41 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 4 | – | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 3 May 2023 | 41 | 10 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 4 | – | 2 | 4 |
| GMS | 4 Jan 2023 | 41 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 4 | – | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 26 Oct 2022 | 39 | 13 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 4 | – | 1 | 4 |
| GMS | 21 Sep 2022 | 40 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 6 | – | 1 | 4 |
| GMS | 20 Jun 2022 | 40 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 5 | – | 1 | 6 |
| GMS | 26 Apr 2022 | 38 | 9 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 7 | – | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 1 Mar 2022 | 37 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 8 | – | 2 | 4 |
| GMS | 5 Jan 2022 | 35 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 9 | – | 1 | 6 |
| GMS | 28 Jul 2021 | 39 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 7 | – | 1 | 4 |
| GMS | 30 Mar 2021 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 6 | – | 1 | 4 |
| GMS | 16 Feb 2021 | 47 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | – | 1 | 3 |
| GMS | 5 Jan 2021 | 48 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 4 | – | 2 | 5 |
| GMS | 10 Nov 2020 | 46 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 4 | – | 1 | 6 |
| GMS | 13 Oct 2020 | 46 | 8 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 4 | – | 1 | 4 |
| GMS | 21 Aug 2020 | 47 | 7 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 3 | – | 2 | 5 |
| GMS | 28 Jul 2020 | 49 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | – | 1 | 6 |
| GMS | 16 Jun 2020 | 48 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 4 | – | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 5 May 2020 | 47 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 3 | – | 1 | 5 |
| GMS | 25 Feb 2020 | 38 | 11 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 3 | – | 1 | 3 |
| GMS | 3 Jan 2020 | 38 | 10 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 6 | – | 1 | 3 |
| GMS | 8 Oct 2019 | 37 | 10 | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | – | – | 4 |
| GMS | 23 Jul 2019 | 37 | 9 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 5 | – | – | 6 |
| GMS | 25 Jun 2019 | 37 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 5 | – | – | 6 |
| GMS | 3 Jan 2019 | 38 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 5 | – | – | 5 |
| GMS | 27 Sep 2018 | 35 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 5 | – | – | 5 |
| GMS | 11 Sep 2018 | 36 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 6 | – | – | 5 |
| GMS | 1 Aug 2018 | 39 | 13 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 6 | – | – | 5 |
| GMS | 12 Jul 2018 | 39 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 6 | – | – | 5 |
| GMS | 17 May 2018 | 42 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 5 | – | – | 6 |
| GMS | 27 Apr 2018 | 44 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 5 | – | – | 5 |
| GMS | 22 Mar 2018 | 43 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 6 | – | – | 4 |
| GMS | 12 Feb 2018 | 40 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 6 | – | – | 7 |
| GMS | 2 Jan 2018 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 7 | – | – | 7 |
| GMS | 30 Nov 2017 | 37 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 8 | – | – | 6 |
| GMS | 19 Oct 2017 | 41 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 7 | – | – | 4 |