GMS poll of 26 October 2022 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 19 to 25 Oct 2022
- Respondents
- 1,002
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU39.0%-1.0
- Grüne18.0%±0
- AfD13.0%+2.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%±0
- SPD9.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%-2.0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Bayernpartei1.0%±0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 21 Sep 2022.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,002 people were surveyed from 19 to 25 Oct 2022, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 21 Sep 2022, AfD gains 2.0 points, FDP loses 2.0 points, CSU loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has AfD 3.5 points higher and Grüne 2.3 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 26 Oct 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +3.5average 9.5
- Grüne -2.3average 20.3
- FDP -1.5average 5.5
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 9.5
- SPD +0.2average 8.8
- CSU ±0average 39.0
- Linke ±0average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU79
- Grüne37
- AfD26
- Freie Wähler20
- SPD18
- CSU + Grüne116 of 180
- CSU + AfD105 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler99 of 180
- CSU + SPD97 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.