Single poll
GMS poll of 4 January 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Dec 2022 to 3 Jan 2023
- Respondents
- 1,003
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU41.0%+2.0
- Grüne18.0%±0
- AfD10.0%-3.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%±0
- SPD9.0%±0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Bayernpartei1.0%±0
- Others5.0%+1.0
41.0%
+2.0
CSU
18.0%
±0
Grüne
10.0%
-3.0
AfD
10.0%
±0
Freie Wähler
9.0%
±0
SPD
4.0%
±0
FDP
2.0%
±0
Linke
1.0%
±0
Bayernpartei
5.0%
+1.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 26 Oct 2022.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 41.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 28 Dec 2022 to 3 Jan 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 26 Oct 2022, AfD loses 3.0 points, CSU gains 2.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jan 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +0.8average 40.2
- Freie Wähler -0.5average 10.5
- AfD -0.4average 10.4
- SPD -0.4average 9.4
- FDP +0.2average 3.8
- Linke +0.2average 1.8
- Grüne -0.1average 18.1
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU84
- Grüne37
- AfD21
- Freie Wähler20
- SPD18
- CSU + Grüne121 of 180
- CSU + AfD105 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler104 of 180
- CSU + SPD102 of 180
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.