GMS poll of 21 September 2022 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 20 Sep 2022
- Respondents
- 1,004
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU40.0%±0
- Grüne18.0%-2.0
- AfD11.0%+3.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%+1.0
- SPD8.0%-1.0
- FDP6.0%+1.0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Bayernpartei1.0%±0
- Others4.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 20 Jun 2022.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 14 to 20 Sep 2022, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 20 Jun 2022, AfD gains 3.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has AfD 3.3 points higher and Grüne 3.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Sep 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +3.3average 7.7
- Grüne -3.0average 21.0
- Freie Wähler +0.7average 9.3
- FDP -0.3average 6.3
- Linke +0.3average 1.7
- CSU ±0average 40.0
- SPD ±0average 8.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU77
- Grüne35
- AfD21
- Freie Wähler19
- SPD16
- FDP12
- CSU + Grüne112 of 180
- CSU + AfD98 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler96 of 180
- CSU + SPD93 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.