Single poll

GMS poll of 9 August 2023 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
SAT.1 Bayern / Antenne Bayern
Fieldwork period
2 to 8 Aug 2023
Respondents
1,002
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU39.0%-1.0
  • Grüne14.0%-1.0
  • AfD14.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler12.0%±0
  • SPD9.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%+1.0
  • Bayernpartei1.0%±0
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 4 Jul 2023.

In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by Grüne on 14.0%. 1,002 people were surveyed from 2 to 8 Aug 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern / Antenne Bayern.

Compared with the previous GMS poll of 4 Jul 2023, CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has SPD 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Aug 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -1.6average 10.6
  • Grüne -1.1average 15.1
  • Linke +1.1average 1.9
  • AfD +0.7average 13.3
  • CSU +0.2average 38.8
  • FDP +0.2average 3.8
  • Freie Wähler +0.1average 11.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 80 seatsGrüne: 29 seatsAfD: 29 seatsFreie Wähler: 24 seatsSPD: 18 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU80
  • Grüne29
  • AfD29
  • Freie Wähler24
  • SPD18
  • CSU + Grüne109 of 180
  • CSU + AfD109 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler104 of 180
  • CSU + SPD98 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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