GMS poll of 4 July 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern / Antenne Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 1,006
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU40.0%-1.0
- Grüne15.0%+1.0
- AfD13.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler12.0%+1.0
- SPD9.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Bayernpartei1.0%±0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 6 Jun 2023.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by Grüne on 15.0%. 1,006 people were surveyed from 28 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern / Antenne Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 6 Jun 2023, CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.4average 10.4
- Freie Wähler +1.1average 10.9
- AfD +1.0average 12.0
- Grüne -0.3average 15.3
- CSU +0.2average 39.8
- FDP -0.2average 4.2
- Linke +0.1average 1.9
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU81
- Grüne31
- AfD26
- Freie Wähler24
- SPD18
- CSU + Grüne112 of 180
- CSU + AfD107 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler105 of 180
- CSU + SPD99 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.