Single poll

GMS poll of 6 June 2023 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
SAT.1 Bayern
Fieldwork period
31 May 2023 to 5 Jun 2023
Respondents
1,001
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU41.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%-2.0
  • AfD12.0%+2.0
  • Freie Wähler11.0%+2.0
  • SPD10.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke2.0%-1.0
  • Bayernpartei1.0%-1.0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 May 2023.

In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 41.0%, followed by Grüne on 14.0%. 1,001 people were surveyed from 31 May 2023 to 5 Jun 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.

Compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 May 2023, Grüne loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 2.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 6 Jun 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.3average 15.3
  • CSU +1.0average 40.0
  • AfD +0.8average 11.2
  • FDP -0.6average 4.6
  • Freie Wähler -0.4average 11.4
  • SPD -0.2average 10.2
  • Linke +0.1average 1.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 84 seatsGrüne: 29 seatsAfD: 25 seatsFreie Wähler: 22 seatsSPD: 20 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU84
  • Grüne29
  • AfD25
  • Freie Wähler22
  • SPD20
  • CSU + Grüne113 of 180
  • CSU + AfD109 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler106 of 180
  • CSU + SPD104 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.