Single poll

GMS poll of 28 July 2020 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
SAT.1 Bayern
Fieldwork period
22 to 27 Jul 2020
Respondents
1,004
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU49.0%+1.0
  • Grüne19.0%+3.0
  • SPD7.0%-2.0
  • AfD7.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler5.0%-3.0
  • FDP3.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Bayernpartei1.0%±0
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 16 Jun 2020.

In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 49.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 22 to 27 Jul 2020, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.

Compared with the previous GMS poll of 16 Jun 2020, Grüne gains 3.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 3.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CSU 2.6 points higher and Freie Wähler 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Jul 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CSU +2.6average 46.4
  • Freie Wähler -2.0average 7.0
  • SPD -1.8average 8.8
  • AfD -0.5average 7.5
  • FDP -0.4average 3.4
  • Grüne +0.1average 18.9
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 101 seatsGrüne: 39 seatsSPD: 15 seatsAfD: 15 seatsFreie Wähler: 10 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU101
  • Grüne39
  • SPD15
  • AfD15
  • Freie Wähler10
  • CSU + Grüne140 of 180
  • CSU + SPD116 of 180
  • CSU + AfD116 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler111 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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