Single poll

GMS poll of 21 August 2020 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
SAT.1 Bayern
Fieldwork period
17 to 20 Aug 2020
Respondents
1,005
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU47.0%-2.0
  • Grüne18.0%-1.0
  • SPD9.0%+2.0
  • AfD7.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler6.0%+1.0
  • FDP3.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Bayernpartei2.0%+1.0
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 28 Jul 2020.

In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 47.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 17 to 20 Aug 2020, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.

Compared with the previous GMS poll of 28 Jul 2020, CSU loses 2.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Aug 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CSU -1.0average 48.0
  • Grüne -1.0average 19.0
  • SPD +0.5average 8.5
  • AfD ±0average 7.0
  • Freie Wähler ±0average 6.0
  • FDP ±0average 3.0
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 97 seatsGrüne: 37 seatsSPD: 19 seatsAfD: 15 seatsFreie Wähler: 12 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU97
  • Grüne37
  • SPD19
  • AfD15
  • Freie Wähler12
  • CSU + Grüne134 of 180
  • CSU + SPD116 of 180
  • CSU + AfD112 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler109 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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