Single poll

GMS poll of 13 October 2020 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
SAT.1 Bayern
Fieldwork period
7 to 12 Oct 2020
Respondents
1,003
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU46.0%-1.0
  • Grüne19.0%+1.0
  • SPD8.0%-1.0
  • AfD8.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler7.0%+1.0
  • FDP4.0%+1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Bayernpartei1.0%-1.0
  • Others4.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 21 Aug 2020.

In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 46.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 7 to 12 Oct 2020, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.

Compared with the previous GMS poll of 21 Aug 2020, CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Oct 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -1.0average 9.0
  • FDP +1.0average 3.0
  • Grüne -0.5average 19.5
  • AfD +0.5average 7.5
  • CSU ±0average 46.0
  • Freie Wähler ±0average 7.0
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 95 seatsGrüne: 39 seatsSPD: 16 seatsAfD: 16 seatsFreie Wähler: 14 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU95
  • Grüne39
  • SPD16
  • AfD16
  • Freie Wähler14
  • CSU + Grüne134 of 180
  • CSU + SPD111 of 180
  • CSU + AfD111 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler109 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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