Single poll

GMS poll of 10 November 2020 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
SAT.1 Bayern
Fieldwork period
4 to 9 Nov 2020
Respondents
1,004
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU46.0%±0
  • Grüne18.0%-1.0
  • SPD8.0%±0
  • AfD8.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler6.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Bayernpartei1.0%±0
  • Others6.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 13 Oct 2020.

In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 46.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 4 to 9 Nov 2020, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.

Compared with the previous GMS poll of 13 Oct 2020, Grüne loses 1.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has Grüne 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Nov 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.5average 19.5
  • SPD -1.0average 9.0
  • Freie Wähler -1.0average 7.0
  • FDP +1.0average 3.0
  • AfD +0.5average 7.5
  • CSU ±0average 46.0
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 96 seatsGrüne: 38 seatsSPD: 17 seatsAfD: 17 seatsFreie Wähler: 12 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU96
  • Grüne38
  • SPD17
  • AfD17
  • Freie Wähler12
  • CSU + Grüne134 of 180
  • CSU + SPD113 of 180
  • CSU + AfD113 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler108 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.