GMS poll of 5 January 2021 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Dec 2020 to 4 Jan 2021
- Respondents
- 1,005
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU48.0%+2.0
- Grüne18.0%±0
- SPD8.0%±0
- Freie Wähler7.0%+1.0
- AfD6.0%-2.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke2.0%-1.0
- Bayernpartei2.0%+1.0
- Others5.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 10 Nov 2020.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 48.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 29 Dec 2020 to 4 Jan 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 10 Nov 2020, CSU gains 2.0 points, AfD loses 2.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CSU 2.0 points higher and Grüne 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Jan 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +2.0average 46.0
- Grüne -1.5average 19.5
- AfD -1.5average 7.5
- SPD -1.0average 9.0
- FDP +1.0average 3.0
- Linke -1.0average 3.0
- Freie Wähler ±0average 7.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU99
- Grüne37
- SPD17
- Freie Wähler15
- AfD12
- CSU + Grüne136 of 180
- CSU + SPD116 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler114 of 180
- CSU + AfD111 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.