GMS poll of 23 July 2019 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 22 Jul 2019
- Respondents
- 1,003
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU37.0%±0
- Grüne22.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler11.0%+2.0
- AfD9.0%±0
- SPD7.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 25 Jun 2019.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by Grüne on 22.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 17 to 22 Jul 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 25 Jun 2019, Freie Wähler gains 2.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Jul 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.4average 8.4
- AfD +0.9average 8.1
- Freie Wähler -0.6average 11.6
- FDP -0.6average 5.6
- CSU +0.5average 36.5
- Grüne +0.4average 21.6
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU73
- Grüne43
- Freie Wähler22
- AfD18
- SPD14
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne116 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler95 of 180
- CSU + AfD91 of 180
- CSU + SPD + FDP97 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.