Single poll
GMS poll of 8 October 2019 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 7 Oct 2019
- Respondents
- 1,005
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU37.0%±0
- Grüne22.0%±0
- Freie Wähler11.0%±0
- AfD10.0%+1.0
- SPD8.0%+1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others4.0%-2.0
37.0%
±0
CSU
22.0%
±0
Grüne
11.0%
±0
Freie Wähler
10.0%
+1.0
AfD
8.0%
+1.0
SPD
5.0%
±0
FDP
3.0%
±0
Linke
4.0%
-2.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 23 Jul 2019.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by Grüne on 22.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 1 to 7 Oct 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 23 Jul 2019, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Oct 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +1.0average 36.0
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 10.0
- AfD -1.0average 11.0
- SPD -1.0average 9.0
- Grüne ±0average 22.0
- FDP ±0average 5.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU72
- Grüne43
- Freie Wähler21
- AfD19
- SPD15
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne115 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler93 of 180
- CSU + AfD91 of 180
- CSU + SPD + FDP97 of 180
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.