Single poll

GMS poll of 25 February 2020 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
SAT.1 Bayern
Fieldwork period
17 to 24 Feb 2020
Respondents
1,006
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU38.0%±0
  • Grüne20.0%±0
  • AfD11.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler11.0%+1.0
  • SPD9.0%+1.0
  • Linke4.0%±0
  • FDP3.0%-3.0
  • Bayernpartei1.0%±0
  • Others3.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 Jan 2020.

In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 1,006 people were surveyed from 17 to 24 Feb 2020, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.

Compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 Jan 2020, FDP loses 3.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has Grüne 3.5 points lower and CSU 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Feb 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -3.5average 23.5
  • CSU +2.0average 36.0
  • FDP -1.5average 4.5
  • Freie Wähler +1.0average 10.0
  • SPD +1.0average 8.0
  • Linke +1.0average 3.0
  • AfD +0.5average 10.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 77 seatsGrüne: 41 seatsAfD: 22 seatsFreie Wähler: 22 seatsSPD: 18 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU77
  • Grüne41
  • AfD22
  • Freie Wähler22
  • SPD18
  • CSU + Grüne118 of 180
  • CSU + AfD99 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler99 of 180
  • CSU + SPD95 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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