GMS poll of 5 May 2020 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Apr 2020 to 4 May 2020
- Respondents
- 1,006
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU47.0%+9.0
- Grüne15.0%-5.0
- SPD10.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler9.0%-2.0
- AfD7.0%-4.0
- FDP3.0%±0
- Linke3.0%-1.0
- Bayernpartei1.0%±0
- Others5.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 25 Feb 2020.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 47.0%, followed by Grüne on 15.0%. 1,006 people were surveyed from 28 Apr 2020 to 4 May 2020, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 25 Feb 2020, CSU gains 9.0 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points, AfD loses 4.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has Grüne 3.3 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 May 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -3.3average 18.3
- Freie Wähler +0.9average 8.1
- FDP -0.6average 3.6
- CSU +0.4average 46.6
- SPD +0.3average 9.7
- AfD -0.3average 7.3
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU96
- Grüne31
- SPD21
- Freie Wähler18
- AfD14
- CSU + Grüne127 of 180
- CSU + SPD117 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler114 of 180
- CSU + AfD110 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.