GMS poll of 30 March 2021 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 24 to 29 Mar 2021
- Respondents
- 1,005
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU40.0%-7.0
- Grüne20.0%+2.0
- AfD9.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler9.0%+1.0
- SPD8.0%±0
- FDP6.0%+2.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Bayernpartei1.0%±0
- Others4.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 16 Feb 2021.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 24 to 29 Mar 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 16 Feb 2021, CSU loses 7.0 points, Grüne gains 2.0 points, FDP gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CSU 7.0 points lower and AfD 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Mar 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU -7.0average 47.0
- AfD +2.0average 7.0
- FDP +2.0average 4.0
- Grüne +1.5average 18.5
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 8.0
- SPD ±0average 8.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU78
- Grüne39
- AfD18
- Freie Wähler17
- SPD16
- FDP12
- CSU + Grüne117 of 180
- CSU + AfD96 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler95 of 180
- CSU + SPD94 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.