GMS poll of 28 July 2021 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 21 to 27 Jul 2021
- Respondents
- 1,003
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU39.0%-1.0
- Grüne20.0%±0
- SPD9.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler9.0%±0
- AfD8.0%-1.0
- FDP7.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Bayernpartei1.0%±0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 30 Mar 2021.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 21 to 27 Jul 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 30 Mar 2021, CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CSU 1.5 points higher and Grüne 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Jul 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +1.5average 37.5
- Grüne -1.5average 21.5
- SPD +0.5average 8.5
- Freie Wähler -0.5average 9.5
- AfD -0.5average 8.5
- FDP ±0average 7.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU76
- Grüne39
- SPD18
- Freie Wähler17
- AfD16
- FDP14
- CSU + Grüne115 of 180
- CSU + SPD94 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler93 of 180
- CSU + AfD92 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.