GMS poll of 2 January 2018 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Dec 2017 to 1 Jan 2018
- Respondents
- 1,007
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CSU39.0%+2.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- AfD12.0%-2.0
- Grüne10.0%±0
- FDP7.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler7.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others7.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 30 Nov 2017.
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by SPD on 15.0%. 1,007 people were surveyed from 27 Dec 2017 to 1 Jan 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 30 Nov 2017, CSU gains 2.0 points, AfD loses 2.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CSU 1.8 points higher and SPD 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Jan 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +1.8average 37.2
- SPD -1.7average 16.7
- Grüne -1.0average 11.0
- FDP -1.0average 8.0
- Freie Wähler -0.8average 7.8
- Linke -0.6average 3.6
- AfD -0.3average 12.3
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU78
- SPD30
- AfD24
- Grüne20
- FDP14
- Freie Wähler14
- CSU + SPD108 of 180
- CSU + AfD102 of 180
- CSU + Grüne98 of 180
- CSU + FDP92 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler92 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.