Single poll
GMS poll of 12 July 2018 for the Bavarian state election
- State
- Bavaria
- Commissioned by
- SAT.1 Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 11 Jul 2018
- Respondents
- 1,007
- Method
- Unbekannt
In this poll GMS has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by Grüne on 14.0%. 1,007 people were surveyed from 5 to 11 Jul 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by SAT.1 Bayern.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 17 May 2018, CSU loses 3.0 points, Grüne gains 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CSU 1.6 points lower.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Jul 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU -1.6average 40.6
- AfD +0.7average 13.3
- SPD -0.7average 12.7
- FDP +0.4average 5.6
- Grüne +0.2average 13.8
- Freie Wähler +0.2average 6.8
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU76
- Grüne27
- AfD27
- SPD24
- Freie Wähler14
- FDP12
- CSU + Grüne103 of 180
- CSU + AfD103 of 180
- CSU + SPD100 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP102 of 180
More
More polls
← GMS, 17 May 2018GMS, 1 Aug 2018 →Average of all pollsters: BavariaSunday question Bavaria2025 federal election in BavariaChronicle 2018
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.