Pollster and election
INSA on the Baden-Württemberg state election
27 polls since 12 September 2018, the latest from 4 March 2026 for BILD. Against the current average of all pollsters, INSA has Grüne -3.8 and SPD +1.7. House effect since 10 Apr 2024: Grüne -1.9, AfD +1.4, FDP +0.8.
- CDU27.0%-1.0
- Grüne24.0%+2.0
- AfD20.0%±0
- SPD9.0%-1.0
- FDP6.0%±0
- Linke6.0%-1.0
- Others8.0%+4.0
27.0%
-1.0
CDU
24.0%
+2.0
Grüne
20.0%
±0
AfD
9.0%
-1.0
SPD
6.0%
±0
FDP
6.0%
-1.0
Linke
8.0%
+4.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the INSA poll of 23 Feb 2026.
Trend
All INSA figures for the Baden-Württemberg state election
Accuracy
INSA before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 8 Mar 2026 (poll 4 Mar 2026)2.8 ptsbiggest miss Grüne -6.2
- Election 14 Mar 2021 (poll 12 Mar 2021)1.0 ptsbiggest miss AfD +3.3
Archive
All 27 polls
| Pollster | Published | CDU | Grüne | AfD | SPD | FDP | Linke | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 4 Mar 2026 | 27 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| INSA | 23 Feb 2026 | 28 | 22 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| INSA | 29 Jan 2026 | 29 | 21 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| INSA | 16 Oct 2025 | 31 | 17 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| INSA | 9 May 2025 | 31 | 17 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| INSA | 15 Feb 2025 | 31 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| INSA | 7 Dec 2024 | 34 | 20 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| INSA | 11 Oct 2024 | 32 | 18 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| INSA | 15 Aug 2024 | 31 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| INSA | 13 Jun 2024 | 30 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| INSA | 21 Mar 2024 | 30 | 23 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| INSA | 3 Apr 2023 | 27 | 28 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| INSA | 2 Nov 2022 | 28 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| INSA | 13 Jul 2022 | 26 | 29 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 7 |
| INSA | 5 Apr 2022 | 23 | 25 | 10 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 9 |
| INSA | 12 Oct 2021 | 20 | 24 | 9 | 21 | 16 | 3 | 7 |
| INSA | 12 Mar 2021 | 23 | 32 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 6 |
| INSA | 10 Mar 2021 | 25 | 32 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 5 |
| INSA | 13 Feb 2021 | 28 | 31 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 4 |
| INSA | 13 Jan 2021 | 30 | 30 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| INSA | 19 Nov 2020 | 31 | 29 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| INSA | 10 Sep 2020 | 31 | 28 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| INSA | 22 Apr 2020 | 31 | 29 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| INSA | 30 Oct 2019 | 27 | 30 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| INSA | 10 May 2019 | 27 | 28 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 4 |
| INSA | 15 Feb 2019 | 27 | 29 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 5 |
| INSA | 12 Sep 2018 | 25 | 27 | 18 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 4 |