Pollster and election
INSA on the Bavarian state election
22 polls since 5 November 2017, the latest from 20 October 2024 for BILD. Against the current average of all pollsters, INSA has CSU +5.0 and Grüne -3.0.
- CSU43.0%+7.0
- AfD18.0%+4.0
- Freie Wähler11.0%-4.0
- Grüne10.0%-5.0
- SPD8.0%-1.0
- BSW5.0%
- Others5.0%±0
43.0%
+7.0
CSU
18.0%
+4.0
AfD
11.0%
-4.0
Freie Wähler
10.0%
-5.0
Grüne
8.0%
-1.0
SPD
5.0%
BSW
5.0%
±0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the INSA poll of 4 Oct 2023.
Trend
All INSA figures for the Bavaria state election
Accuracy
INSA before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 8 Oct 2023 (poll 4 Oct 2023)0.7 ptsbiggest miss FDP +1.0
- Election 14 Oct 2018 (poll 9 Oct 2018)1.6 ptsbiggest miss CSU -4.2
Archive
All 22 polls
| Pollster | Published | CSU | AfD | Freie Wähler | Grüne | SPD | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 20 Oct 2024 | 43 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2023 | 36 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 9 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 5 Sep 2023 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 9 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 27 Jul 2023 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 11 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 30 May 2023 | 40 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 11 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 5 Apr 2023 | 40 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 10 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 12 Jan 2023 | 40 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 10 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 18 Oct 2022 | 39 | 10 | 9 | 20 | 10 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 12 Oct 2021 | 32 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 20 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 21 Jul 2021 | 37 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 10 | – | 3 |
| INSA | 28 Apr 2021 | 36 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 9 | – | 3 |
| INSA | 28 Jan 2021 | 46 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 9 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 11 Aug 2020 | 47 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 10 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 30 May 2020 | 46 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 10 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 25 Sep 2019 | 36 | 11 | 10 | 22 | 9 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 9 Oct 2018 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 18 | 10 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 26 Sep 2018 | 34 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 11 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 28 Aug 2018 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 13 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 27 Jun 2018 | 41 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 13 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 21 Apr 2018 | 42 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 13 | – | 3 |
| INSA | 13 Dec 2017 | 40 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 15 | – | 3 |
| INSA | 5 Nov 2017 | 37 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 17 | – | 3 |