Single poll

INSA poll of 28 August 2018 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
23 to 27 Aug 2018
Respondents
1,033
Method
Unbekannt
  • CSU36.0%-5.0
  • Grüne15.0%+2.0
  • AfD14.0%±0
  • SPD13.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler8.0%+2.0
  • FDP6.0%+1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jun 2018.

In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 15.0%. 1,033 people were surveyed from 23 to 27 Aug 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jun 2018, CSU loses 5.0 points, Grüne gains 2.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CSU 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Aug 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CSU -2.0average 38.0
  • AfD +1.1average 12.9
  • SPD +0.8average 12.2
  • Grüne -0.5average 15.5
  • FDP +0.5average 5.5
  • Linke -0.4average 3.4
  • Freie Wähler -0.3average 8.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 71 seatsGrüne: 29 seatsAfD: 27 seatsSPD: 25 seatsFreie Wähler: 16 seatsFDP: 12 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU71
  • Grüne29
  • AfD27
  • SPD25
  • Freie Wähler16
  • FDP12
  • CSU + Grüne100 of 180
  • CSU + AfD98 of 180
  • CSU + SPD96 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP99 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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