Single poll
INSA poll of 27 June 2018 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 25 to 27 Jun 2018
- Respondents
- 1,231
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CSU41.0%-1.0
- AfD14.0%+1.0
- SPD13.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- Freie Wähler6.0%±0
- FDP5.0%-2.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others5.0%+2.0
41.0%
-1.0
CSU
14.0%
+1.0
AfD
13.0%
±0
SPD
13.0%
±0
Grüne
6.0%
±0
Freie Wähler
5.0%
-2.0
FDP
3.0%
±0
Linke
5.0%
+2.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 21 Apr 2018.
In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 41.0%, followed by AfD on 14.0%. 1,231 people were surveyed from 25 to 27 Jun 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 21 Apr 2018, FDP loses 2.0 points, CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Jun 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler -1.3average 7.3
- AfD +1.1average 12.9
- Grüne -0.2average 13.2
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
- SPD +0.1average 12.9
- Linke +0.1average 2.9
- CSU ±0average 41.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU80
- AfD27
- SPD26
- Grüne25
- Freie Wähler12
- FDP10
- CSU + AfD107 of 180
- CSU + SPD106 of 180
- CSU + Grüne105 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler92 of 180
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.