Pollster and election
INSA on the Lower Saxony state election
17 polls since 27 May 2017, the latest from 11 September 2026 for BILD. Against the current average of all pollsters, INSA has SPD ±0 and CDU ±0.
- SPD26.0%+1.0
- CDU22.0%-3.0
- AfD21.0%+1.0
- Grüne15.0%+3.0
- Linke6.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- BSW3.0%±0
- Others2.0%-2.0
26.0%
+1.0
SPD
22.0%
-3.0
CDU
21.0%
+1.0
AfD
15.0%
+3.0
Grüne
6.0%
-1.0
Linke
5.0%
+1.0
FDP
3.0%
±0
BSW
2.0%
-2.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the INSA poll of 22 Apr 2026.
Trend
All INSA figures for the Lower Saxony state election
Accuracy
INSA before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 9 Oct 2022 (poll 4 Oct 2022)0.9 ptsbiggest miss SPD -2.4
- Election 15 Oct 2017 (poll 9 Oct 2017)1.8 ptsbiggest miss SPD -3.9
Archive
All 17 polls
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 11 Sep 2026 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| INSA | 22 Apr 2026 | 25 | 25 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| INSA | 19 Feb 2025 | 25 | 30 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| INSA | 12 Nov 2024 | 26 | 31 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| INSA | 19 Oct 2023 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 4 | – | 7 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2022 | 31 | 28 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 5 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 4 Sep 2022 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 7 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 21 Jun 2022 | 31 | 29 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 8 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 23 Feb 2022 | 34 | 26 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 11 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 21 Oct 2021 | 39 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 12 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 11 May 2021 | 29 | 26 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 9 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 30 Mar 2021 | 30 | 26 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 9 | – | 6 |
| INSA | 8 Nov 2020 | 27 | 34 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 6 | – | 4 |
| INSA | 21 Nov 2018 | 26 | 27 | 12 | 17 | 5 | 10 | – | 3 |
| INSA | 9 Oct 2017 | 33 | 32 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 10 | – | 3 |
| INSA | 9 Aug 2017 | 28 | 40 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 9 | – | 2 |
| INSA | 27 May 2017 | 27 | 41 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 9 | – | 4 |