Pollster and election
INSA on the North Rhine-Westphalia state election
17 polls since 5 March 2017, the latest from 8 May 2026 for BILD. Against the current average of all pollsters, INSA has CDU +3.5 and SPD +2.5. House effect since 23 Sep 2024: CDU -1.8, SPD +1.7, Linke +1.3.
- CDU34.0%-2.0
- SPD18.0%-1.0
- AfD17.0%+1.0
- Grüne15.0%+3.0
- Linke9.0%+2.0
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Others3.0%-2.0
34.0%
-2.0
CDU
18.0%
-1.0
SPD
17.0%
+1.0
AfD
15.0%
+3.0
Grüne
9.0%
+2.0
Linke
4.0%
-1.0
FDP
3.0%
-2.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the INSA poll of 23 Nov 2025.
Trend
All INSA figures for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election
Accuracy
INSA before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 15 May 2022 (poll 12 May 2022)2.0 ptsbiggest miss CDU -3.7
- Election 14 May 2017 (poll 9 May 2017)1.1 ptsbiggest miss CDU -3.0
Archive
All 17 polls
| Pollster | Published | CDU | SPD | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 8 May 2026 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| INSA | 23 Nov 2025 | 36 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| INSA | 22 Aug 2025 | 35 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| INSA | 3 May 2023 | 36 | 22 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| INSA | 25 Aug 2022 | 36 | 22 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| INSA | 12 May 2022 | 32 | 28 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| INSA | 10 May 2022 | 31 | 29 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| INSA | 17 Apr 2022 | 29 | 31 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| INSA | 5 Apr 2022 | 28 | 30 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| INSA | 20 Feb 2022 | 27 | 29 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 6 |
| INSA | 3 Feb 2022 | 26 | 28 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 8 |
| INSA | 12 Oct 2021 | 20 | 33 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 7 |
| INSA | 11 May 2021 | 25 | 20 | 9 | 26 | 4.5 | 11 | 4.5 |
| INSA | 31 Oct 2020 | 33 | 23 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| INSA | 9 May 2017 | 30 | 33 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 5 |
| INSA | 11 Apr 2017 | 28 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
| INSA | 5 Mar 2017 | 27 | 38 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 3 |