Single poll

INSA poll of 31 October 2020 for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
22 to 28 Oct 2020
Respondents
1,008
Method
Online
  • CDU33.0%+3.0
  • SPD23.0%-10.0
  • Grüne19.0%+12.0
  • FDP8.0%-5.0
  • AfD8.0%+1.0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others4.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 May 2017.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 33.0%, followed by SPD on 23.0%. 1,008 people were surveyed from 22 to 28 Oct 2020, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 May 2017, Grüne gains 12.0 points, SPD loses 10.0 points, FDP loses 5.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 3.0 points lower and SPD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Oct 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -3.0average 22.0
  • SPD +2.0average 21.0
  • CDU -1.0average 34.0
  • FDP +1.0average 7.0
  • AfD +1.0average 7.0
  • Linke +1.0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

181 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 62 seatsSPD: 44 seatsGrüne: 36 seatsFDP: 15 seatsAfD: 15 seatsLinke: 9 seatsMajority from 91181of 181 seats
  • CDU62
  • SPD44
  • Grüne36
  • FDP15
  • AfD15
  • Linke9
  • CDU + SPD106 of 181
  • CDU + Grüne98 of 181
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP95 of 181
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD95 of 181
  • CDU + FDP + AfD92 of 181
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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