Single poll

INSA poll of 12 October 2021 for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
4 to 11 Oct 2021
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • SPD33.0%+13.0
  • CDU20.0%-5.0
  • FDP15.0%+4.0
  • Grüne13.0%-13.0
  • AfD8.0%-1.0
  • Linke4.0%-0.5
  • Others7.0%+2.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 May 2021.

In this poll INSA has SPD ahead on 33.0%, followed by CDU on 20.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 4 to 11 Oct 2021, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 May 2021, SPD gains 13.0 points, Grüne loses 13.0 points, CDU loses 5.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 14.5 points higher and Grüne 13.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Oct 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +14.5average 18.5
  • Grüne -13.0average 26.0
  • CDU -6.5average 26.5
  • FDP +3.5average 11.5
  • AfD +0.5average 7.5
  • Linke +0.5average 3.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

181 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

SPD: 67 seatsCDU: 41 seatsFDP: 31 seatsGrüne: 26 seatsAfD: 16 seatsMajority from 91181of 181 seats
  • SPD67
  • CDU41
  • FDP31
  • Grüne26
  • AfD16
  • SPD + CDU108 of 181
  • SPD + FDP98 of 181
  • SPD + Grüne93 of 181
  • CDU + FDP + Grüne98 of 181
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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