Single poll

INSA poll of 21 October 2021 for the Lower Saxony state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
12 to 18 Oct 2021
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • SPD39.0%+10.0
  • CDU19.0%-7.0
  • Grüne13.0%-7.0
  • FDP12.0%+3.0
  • AfD7.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 May 2021.

In this poll INSA has SPD ahead on 39.0%, followed by CDU on 19.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 12 to 18 Oct 2021, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 May 2021, SPD gains 10.0 points, CDU loses 7.0 points, Grüne loses 7.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 4.0 points lower and Grüne 3.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Oct 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU -4.0average 23.0
  • Grüne -3.0average 16.0
  • SPD +2.5average 36.5
  • FDP +1.5average 10.5
  • AfD +1.0average 6.0
  • Linke +1.0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

135 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

SPD: 56 seatsCDU: 27 seatsGrüne: 18 seatsFDP: 17 seatsAfD: 10 seatsLinke: 7 seatsMajority from 68135of 135 seats
  • SPD56
  • CDU27
  • Grüne18
  • FDP17
  • AfD10
  • Linke7
  • SPD + CDU83 of 135
  • SPD + Grüne74 of 135
  • SPD + FDP73 of 135
  • SPD + AfD + Linke73 of 135
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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