INSA poll of 25 September 2019 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 16 to 23 Sep 2019
- Respondents
- 1,034
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CSU36.0%+3.0
- Grüne22.0%+4.0
- AfD11.0%-3.0
- Freie Wähler10.0%-1.0
- SPD9.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%-0.5
- Linke3.0%-1.5
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Oct 2018.
In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 22.0%. 1,034 people were surveyed from 16 to 23 Sep 2019, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Oct 2018, Grüne gains 4.0 points, CSU gains 3.0 points, AfD loses 3.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.3 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Sep 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.3average 8.7
- CSU -0.7average 36.7
- Grüne +0.6average 21.4
- Freie Wähler -0.4average 10.4
- FDP -0.4average 5.4
- SPD +0.3average 8.7
- Linke -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU70
- Grüne43
- AfD21
- Freie Wähler19
- SPD17
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne113 of 180
- CSU + AfD91 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + SPD106 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP99 of 180
- CSU + SPD + FDP97 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.