Single poll

INSA poll of 30 May 2020 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
19 to 25 May 2020
Respondents
1,014
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CSU46.0%+10.0
  • Grüne17.0%-5.0
  • SPD10.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler8.0%-2.0
  • AfD7.0%-4.0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Sep 2019.

In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 46.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.0%. 1,014 people were surveyed from 19 to 25 May 2020, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Sep 2019, CSU gains 10.0 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points, AfD loses 4.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 30 May 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • FDP +1.0average 3.0
  • Grüne -0.9average 17.9
  • SPD +0.6average 9.4
  • CSU -0.4average 46.4
  • Freie Wähler -0.4average 8.4
  • AfD +0.1average 6.9
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 94 seatsGrüne: 35 seatsSPD: 21 seatsFreie Wähler: 16 seatsAfD: 14 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU94
  • Grüne35
  • SPD21
  • Freie Wähler16
  • AfD14
  • CSU + Grüne129 of 180
  • CSU + SPD115 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler110 of 180
  • CSU + AfD108 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.