Single poll

INSA poll of 11 August 2020 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
5 to 10 Aug 2020
Respondents
1,001
Method
Online
  • CSU47.0%+1.0
  • Grüne18.0%+1.0
  • SPD10.0%±0
  • AfD7.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler7.0%-1.0
  • FDP3.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 May 2020.

In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 47.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,001 people were surveyed from 5 to 10 Aug 2020, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 May 2020, CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 2.2 points higher and Grüne 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Aug 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.2average 7.8
  • Grüne -1.5average 19.5
  • Freie Wähler +1.0average 6.0
  • AfD -0.5average 7.5
  • CSU -0.4average 47.4
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
  • FDP ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 95 seatsGrüne: 37 seatsSPD: 20 seatsAfD: 14 seatsFreie Wähler: 14 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU95
  • Grüne37
  • SPD20
  • AfD14
  • Freie Wähler14
  • CSU + Grüne132 of 180
  • CSU + SPD115 of 180
  • CSU + AfD109 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler109 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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