INSA poll of 28 January 2021 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- FDP Bayern
- Fieldwork period
- 21 to 26 Jan 2021
- Respondents
- 1,016
- Method
- Online
- CSU46.0%-1.0
- Grüne18.0%±0
- SPD9.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler8.0%+1.0
- AfD7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%+2.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Aug 2020.
In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 46.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,016 people were surveyed from 21 to 26 Jan 2021, method Online, commissioned by FDP Bayern.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Aug 2020, FDP gains 2.0 points, CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CSU 2.0 points lower and SPD 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Jan 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU -2.0average 48.0
- SPD +1.5average 7.5
- FDP +1.5average 3.5
- Grüne -0.5average 18.5
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 7.5
- AfD +0.5average 6.5
- Linke +0.5average 2.5
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU89
- Grüne35
- SPD17
- Freie Wähler15
- AfD14
- FDP10
- CSU + Grüne124 of 180
- CSU + SPD106 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler104 of 180
- CSU + AfD103 of 180
- CSU + FDP99 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.