Single poll

INSA poll of 28 April 2021 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
22 to 27 Apr 2021
Respondents
1,400
Method
Online
  • CSU36.0%-10.0
  • Grüne24.0%+6.0
  • SPD9.0%±0
  • AfD9.0%+2.0
  • Freie Wähler9.0%+1.0
  • FDP7.0%+2.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others3.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Jan 2021.

In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 24.0%. 1,400 people were surveyed from 22 to 27 Apr 2021, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Jan 2021, CSU loses 10.0 points, Grüne gains 6.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CSU 8.0 points lower and Grüne 4.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Apr 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CSU -8.0average 44.0
  • Grüne +4.5average 19.5
  • FDP +2.5average 4.5
  • SPD +1.5average 7.5
  • AfD +1.0average 8.0
  • Freie Wähler +0.5average 8.5
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 69 seatsGrüne: 46 seatsSPD: 17 seatsAfD: 17 seatsFreie Wähler: 17 seatsFDP: 14 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU69
  • Grüne46
  • SPD17
  • AfD17
  • Freie Wähler17
  • FDP14
  • CSU + Grüne115 of 180
  • CSU + SPD + AfD103 of 180
  • CSU + SPD + Freie Wähler103 of 180
  • CSU + AfD + Freie Wähler103 of 180
  • CSU + SPD + FDP100 of 180
  • CSU + AfD + FDP100 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP100 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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