Single poll

INSA poll of 21 July 2021 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
12 to 19 Jul 2021
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CSU37.0%+1.0
  • Grüne21.0%-3.0
  • SPD10.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler10.0%+1.0
  • FDP8.0%+1.0
  • AfD8.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others3.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Apr 2021.

In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by Grüne on 21.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 12 to 19 Jul 2021, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Apr 2021, Grüne loses 3.0 points, CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 2.5 points higher and CSU 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Jul 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.5average 7.5
  • CSU -2.0average 39.0
  • FDP +2.0average 6.0
  • Freie Wähler +1.0average 9.0
  • AfD -1.0average 9.0
  • Grüne ±0average 21.0
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 71 seatsGrüne: 41 seatsSPD: 19 seatsFreie Wähler: 19 seatsFDP: 15 seatsAfD: 15 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU71
  • Grüne41
  • SPD19
  • Freie Wähler19
  • FDP15
  • AfD15
  • CSU + Grüne112 of 180
  • CSU + SPD + Freie Wähler109 of 180
  • CSU + SPD + FDP105 of 180
  • CSU + SPD + AfD105 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP105 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler + AfD105 of 180
  • CSU + FDP + AfD101 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.