Single poll

INSA poll of 18 October 2022 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
10 to 17 Oct 2022
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CSU39.0%+7.0
  • Grüne20.0%+5.0
  • SPD10.0%-10.0
  • AfD10.0%+2.0
  • Freie Wähler9.0%+1.0
  • FDP6.0%-5.0
  • Linke2.0%±0
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 Oct 2021.

In this poll INSA has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 10 to 17 Oct 2022, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 Oct 2021, SPD loses 10.0 points, CSU gains 7.0 points, Grüne gains 5.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Oct 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +1.7average 8.3
  • Freie Wähler -0.8average 9.8
  • FDP +0.5average 5.5
  • CSU -0.3average 39.3
  • Grüne +0.2average 19.8
  • AfD +0.2average 9.8
  • Linke ±0average 2.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 75 seatsGrüne: 38 seatsSPD: 19 seatsAfD: 19 seatsFreie Wähler: 17 seatsFDP: 12 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU75
  • Grüne38
  • SPD19
  • AfD19
  • Freie Wähler17
  • FDP12
  • CSU + Grüne113 of 180
  • CSU + SPD94 of 180
  • CSU + AfD94 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler92 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.