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Pollster and election

Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the Hesse state election

22 polls since 4 December 2021, the latest from 6 October 2023 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD -5.5 and Linke -4.0.

  • CDU34.5%+1.5
  • Grüne16.5%±0
  • SPD15.5%-0.5
  • AfD15.5%-0.5
  • FDP4.9%-0.6
  • Freie Wähler4.5%±0
  • Linke2.5%-0.5
  • Others6.1%+0.6

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 Oct 2023.

This poll in detail

Trend

All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the Hesse state election

010203040Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22Jan 23Mar 23May 23Jul 23Sep 23CDUGrüneSPDAfDFDPFreie WählerLinke
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 120 days. Period 4 Dec 2021 to 6 Oct 2023. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Accuracy

Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections

Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.

  • Election 8 Oct 2023 (poll 6 Oct 2023)1.0 ptsbiggest miss AfD -2.9
Archive

All 22 polls

Institut Wahlkreisprognose polls for the Hesse state election
PollsterPublishedCDUGrüneSPDAfDFDPFreie WählerLinkeOthers
Institut Wahlkreisprognose6 Oct 202334.516.515.515.54.94.52.56.1
Institut Wahlkreisprognose3 Oct 20233316.516165.54.535.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose26 Sep 202330.5181617.5542.56.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose15 Sep 202330172017.55424.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose30 Aug 2023291620185.54.525
Institut Wahlkreisprognose23 Jul 202325.516202055.526
Institut Wahlkreisprognose1 Jul 20232618201953.52.56
Institut Wahlkreisprognose22 May 2023291623.5137326.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose16 Apr 202328182412.57325.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose8 Mar 202329212411631.54.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose6 Feb 2023262025127.52.51.55.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose28 Dec 20222819251272.51.55
Institut Wahlkreisprognose27 Nov 20223019.522126.5325
Institut Wahlkreisprognose28 Oct 202228.5211813.57336
Institut Wahlkreisprognose30 Sep 202230.5211514.57345
Institut Wahlkreisprognose31 Aug 202229.52615.5973.53.56
Institut Wahlkreisprognose12 Jul 202229.526.52076.53.52.54.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose18 Jun 202232271876–37
Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 May 20222824.5217823.56
Institut Wahlkreisprognose10 Mar 2022252424782.545.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose28 Jan 202225192698364
Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 Dec 202121.518.524.5913355.5

Other elections covered by this pollster

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

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