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Pollster and election

Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the North Rhine-Westphalia state election

14 polls since 31 October 2021, the latest from 3 September 2023 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Linke -5.0 and SPD +4.0.

  • CDU33.5%+2.5
  • SPD19.5%-5.0
  • AfD18.0%+5.5
  • Grüne16.5%-2.5
  • FDP4.5%-1.0
  • Linke2.0%+0.5
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 12 Nov 2022.

This poll in detail

Trend

All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election

010203040Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22Jan 23Mar 23May 23Jul 23Sep 23CDUSPDAfDGrüneFDPLinke
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 120 days. Period 31 Oct 2021 to 3 Sep 2023. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Accuracy

Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections

Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.

  • Election 15 May 2022 (poll 13 May 2022)1.4 ptsbiggest miss CDU -2.7
Archive

All 14 polls

Institut Wahlkreisprognose polls for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election
PollsterPublishedCDUSPDAfDGrüneFDPLinkeOthers
Institut Wahlkreisprognose3 Sep 202333.519.51816.54.526
Institut Wahlkreisprognose12 Nov 20223124.512.5195.51.56
Institut Wahlkreisprognose1 Jul 20223727.5615.5626
Institut Wahlkreisprognose13 May 20223328.56.516.5636.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose6 May 20223029.5716.592.55.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose2 May 202230.531616.592.54.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose22 Apr 20223131.57.5156.52.56
Institut Wahlkreisprognose9 Apr 202227.533617.57.535.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose14 Mar 202230.5315.515.59.52.55.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose17 Feb 20222930813.51045.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose22 Jan 20223027913.51145.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose22 Dec 202129287151236
Institut Wahlkreisprognose28 Nov 202125288.51613.545
Institut Wahlkreisprognose31 Oct 202127305161435

Other elections covered by this pollster

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

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