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Pollster and election

Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the Bavarian state election

21 polls since 15 December 2021, the latest from 9 January 2025 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD -7.0 and CSU +4.0.

  • CSU42.0%+4.5
  • AfD13.0%-1.0
  • Grüne12.5%-3.0
  • Freie Wähler12.0%-3.0
  • SPD8.0%±0
  • Others12.5%+6.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 Oct 2023.

This poll in detail

Trend

All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the Bavaria state election

010203040502022202320242025CSUAfDGrüneFreie WählerSPD
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 120 days. Period 15 Dec 2021 to 9 Jan 2025. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Accuracy

Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections

Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.

  • Election 8 Oct 2023 (poll 6 Oct 2023)0.6 ptsbiggest miss Grüne +1.1
Archive

All 21 polls

Institut Wahlkreisprognose polls for the Bavarian state election
PollsterPublishedCSUAfDGrüneFreie WählerSPDOthers
Institut Wahlkreisprognose9 Jan 2025421312.512812.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose6 Oct 202337.51415.51586
Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 Oct 2023371415157.56
Institut Wahlkreisprognose20 Sep 20233713.51517.58.54.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose7 Sep 2023411513.515.56.54
Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 Sep 2023421512.511.5104
Institut Wahlkreisprognose20 Aug 2023371812.513.5114
Institut Wahlkreisprognose31 Jul 20234016.513.510.5106.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 Jul 2023391614.510.595.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose24 May 2023411212.512105
Institut Wahlkreisprognose6 Apr 2023449.514.5127.56.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose19 Feb 2023431017.51266.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose17 Jan 202343817.51385.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose5 Dec 2022431217.511.574
Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 Nov 202242111911.564
Institut Wahlkreisprognose13 Sep 202242821865
Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 Aug 2022416229.5114.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose30 Jun 202239.5718.510126
Institut Wahlkreisprognose3 May 2022407157166
Institut Wahlkreisprognose23 Feb 202236.59158166.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose15 Dec 202133.5816.51116.54.5

Other elections covered by this pollster

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

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