Pollster and election
Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the Saarland state election
9 polls since 24 December 2021, the latest from 4 May 2024 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD -14.5 and SPD +9.0.
- SPD36.0%+1.0
- CDU28.0%+5.0
- BSW9.0%
- AfD8.5%-14.5
- Grüne5.0%+0.5
- FDP3.5%-1.5
- Linke2.0%+1.0
- Others8.0%-0.5
36.0%
+1.0
SPD
28.0%
+5.0
CDU
9.0%
BSW
8.5%
-14.5
AfD
5.0%
+0.5
Grüne
3.5%
-1.5
FDP
2.0%
+1.0
Linke
8.0%
-0.5
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 8 Aug 2023.
Trend
All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the Saarland state election
Accuracy
Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 27 Mar 2022 (poll 25 Mar 2022)1.0 ptsbiggest miss SPD -2.5
Archive
All 9 polls
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | BSW | AfD | Grüne | FDP | Linke | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 4 May 2024 | 36 | 28 | 9 | 8.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 2 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 8 Aug 2023 | 35 | 23 | – | 23 | 4.5 | 5 | 1 | 8.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 25 Jan 2023 | 42.5 | 27.5 | – | 12 | 5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Nov 2022 | 42 | 26.5 | – | 14 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 25 Mar 2022 | 41 | 28 | – | 6.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 4 | 10 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 18 Mar 2022 | 38 | 30 | – | 6 | 5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 12 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 9 Mar 2022 | 35.5 | 30 | – | 8.5 | 7 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 8 Feb 2022 | 34 | 33 | – | 7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 5 | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Dec 2021 | 38 | 33.5 | – | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2.5 |