Pollster and election
Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the Hamburg state election
5 polls since 30 January 2022, the latest from 1 March 2025 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD +3.0 and Grüne -2.0.
- SPD33.5%+1.5
- CDU18.0%-0.5
- Grüne16.5%-5.0
- Linke14.0%+8.0
- AfD9.0%+0.5
- FDP2.5%-1.0
- BSW2.5%+0.5
- Others4.0%-4.0
33.5%
+1.5
SPD
18.0%
-0.5
CDU
16.5%
-5.0
Grüne
14.0%
+8.0
Linke
9.0%
+0.5
AfD
2.5%
-1.0
FDP
2.5%
+0.5
BSW
4.0%
-4.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 29 Apr 2024.
Trend
All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the Hamburg state election
Accuracy
Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 2 Mar 2025 (poll 1 Mar 2025)1.3 ptsbiggest miss Linke +2.8
Archive
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | AfD | FDP | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Mar 2025 | 33.5 | 18 | 16.5 | 14 | 9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Apr 2024 | 32 | 18.5 | 21.5 | 6 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 2 Oct 2023 | 24.5 | 21 | 21.5 | 8.5 | 13 | 3 | – | 8.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 16 Sep 2022 | 32 | 15 | 27 | 8 | 7 | 6 | – | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Jan 2022 | 40 | 10 | 26.5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | – | 5.5 |